Dynasty rankings are a forecast, not a ledger. The right way to read ours is to look at three things together: where a player ranks, what tier they sit in, and the trajectory next to their name. This page explains how each of those gets computed, where the data comes from, and the cases where we override the numbers.
The fields, in order
Rank
Two numbers per player, both at the overall and positional level. For NFL, the primary is Superflex (SF), which assumes you can start two quarterbacks, with a secondary 1QB column. For MLB the primary is the standard format rank. Position pages always show the positional rank as the headline and the overall rank as a small secondary number, so you can read either view at a glance.
Tier
Tiers compress small ranking gaps into the groups that actually matter at the draft table. Tier 1 is the franchise core. Tier 2 is reliable starters with upside. Tier 3 is the bulk of your starting lineup. Tier 4 is high-variance flex types and younger players climbing. Tier 5 and 6 are deep roster shots and stash candidates.
Tier breaks are placed where the underlying value gap is large enough that trading across them should require a meaningful sweetener. If two players are in the same tier, the order matters less than the cluster they belong to.
Trajectory
The arrow next to a player captures where their stock is heading over the next 12 to 18 months. Up means we expect to be moving them higher, flat means we expect stability, and down means we expect to be moving them lower as the situation, usage, or age curve plays out. Trajectory is forward-looking on purpose: dynasty decisions are made on tomorrow, not last week.
Trade window
A short label that tells you how long this player can carry your roster at their current level. A two-year window means you should treat them like a depreciating asset and consider cashing in before next offseason. A five plus year window means you can build around them. Trade window is the most opinionated field on the site and the one we revisit most often.
One-liner
A single sentence under each player that captures the core thesis. It is not a stat dump. It is the reason we have them where we have them, written so you can read it during a draft without losing your place.
How the rank is calculated
Each ranking pass blends four inputs, weighted by position:
- Long-window production. Three-year rolling production at the position, with the most recent season weighted slightly higher. We use opportunity stats (targets, carries, snaps, pitches thrown) alongside output (yards, touchdowns, wOBA, strikeouts), because opportunity is stickier year over year.
- Situation. Team, role on the depth chart, surrounding talent, quarterback (or pitcher) play, coaching tendencies, and contract length. A situation shock (trade, free agent signing, coaching change) moves a player inside the next update cycle, not at the end of the season.
- Age and position curve. Each position has its own dynasty age curve: receivers age more gracefully than running backs, starting pitchers age differently than relievers, tight ends peak later than the other skill spots. The curve does not pick the rank by itself, but it sets the ceiling on how high a player can climb at a given age.
- Consensus. A blended consensus from a small number of trusted dynasty sources. We do not chase the consensus and we do not contrarian for the sake of it. The consensus check is a sanity rail; if we are more than a tier apart from the field we ask why, and the answer either holds up or the rank moves.
When we override the model
The blended rank is the starting point, not the finish. We override it for any of the following:
- Injury news that the model cannot reflect quickly enough, especially soft-tissue and ligament injuries that have known dynasty implications.
- Coaching or scheme changes that fundamentally alter usage. A play-caller swap that turns a 60 percent route-runner into a slot-only role gets reflected the week it is announced.
- Off-field situations that have a credible chance of affecting availability, handled with judgment and only when reporting is confirmed.
- Rookie news in the months between the combine and the draft, where the model has the least signal and the situation has the most.
The rookie board
The rookie board is a separate model. It ranks the incoming class, weighting college production by age, athletic testing by position, and projected draft capital. Once the draft happens, draft capital becomes the dominant input. Tiers on the rookie board are tuned for startup superflex and 12 team formats by default.
Rookies appear on the main rankings only after they sign with a team and enter their first preseason, with starting tiers shaped by their draft slot and landing spot.
Update cadence
NFL rankings update weekly during the regular season and offseason news cycles, and at major milestones (combine, free agency, draft, training camp opens, week 1 inactives, trade deadline). MLB rankings update weekly during the season and monthly in the offseason. The last updated date on each rankings page is the source of truth; the timestamp in the database is what the page reads.
What we do not do
- We do not rank by name recognition. A 30-year-old running back coming off a highlight season is still a 30-year-old running back.
- We do not run two separate rankings boards (one cautious, one bold). The board you see is the board we would draft from.
- We do not bump players for storytelling reasons. If a player has had a good week and the situation has not changed, the rank does not change.
Corrections
If you see a player on the wrong team, the wrong age, or the wrong tier given the analysis, write us at hello@cappenalties.com. We log corrections and push them out with the next update cycle. Larger methodology changes are documented on this page and announced in the newsletter before they take effect.