The Denver Broncos drafted Jonah Coleman in the fourth round. Coleman went at the 2.05 in early rookie drafts. Six weeks from now, after one OTA report leaks, that pick will cost a 1.10. Buy ahead of the run.
The player
Coleman is 22, played at Washington for four years, finished his senior season with 1,103 yards and 11 touchdowns. He is 5-foot-9, 215 pounds, and ran 4.49 at the combine. He profiles as a between-the-tackles back with enough receiving ability to stay on the field for three-receiver sets. Not a burner. Not a finesse player. Just a back.
The depth chart
Denver's running back room is JK Dobbins, RJ Harvey, Coleman, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Tyler Badie. Dobbins is the RB1 on a fresh two-year deal signed this offseason after a 772-yard, 4-touchdown 2025 season. Harvey is the second-year 2025 second-round pick. McLaughlin is a change-of-pace, third-down specialist. The Broncos turned a former weakness into a three-back rotation.
That makes the path to a lead role harder than the article first projected. Coleman is the third back in a committee. The lead role unlocks only if Dobbins gets hurt, Harvey fails to develop, or both. The path to a workload exists, but it is no longer a clear two-year wait.
The Sean Payton system
This is the part the public is missing. Sean Payton's offenses have produced a top-12 fantasy running back every season since 2007. Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister. The system is built to feature one back, give him 300 touches, and feed him red zone work.
The current Denver back of choice for that role is Dobbins on his fresh two-year deal. Coleman is the long-term play, not the immediate one.
Sean Payton drafted a back in the fourth round, which is exactly where he tends to find his lead backs (Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, multiple Saints late-round picks who became starters). Pattern matches.
The math
The lib/tradeValue engine has Coleman at 41 in Superflex. That places him as the RB42 overall. For a 22-year-old fourth-round rookie, that is conservative. The real range is RB35-RB40 by Halloween if the Williams role declines as expected.
The trade
Coleman is one of the cleanest "buy in May, sell in August" moves on the board. The first time he leads the Broncos in carries in a preseason game, the price jumps. The first time Dobbins or Harvey misses a practice, the price jumps. The first time Payton uses the word "lead back" in a press conference about Coleman, the price jumps twice.
Pay 2.05 now. Sell at 1.10 in three months. Or hold and bet on the workload.
What can go wrong
If Dobbins repeats his 2025 production and Harvey takes the second-year leap, Coleman stays as the depth back for both 2026 and 2027. That is fine. You paid a 2.05 price for a third running back on a real offense, which is on the price scale.
If Coleman gets hurt in camp, you sell at 4.01. Also fine. The downside is bounded.
The upside is the Denver lead back role in a Sean Payton offense for the next three seasons. That is RB10-RB15 territory. From a 2.05 pick. Take the asymmetric bet.
For other deeper picks worth a flier, see our Day-3 rookie sleepers piece. For the cleaner version of the RB question at 1.01, our Jeremiyah Love deep dive covers the contender-back math.