Nick Singleton is the running back the dynasty community keeps moving down. He started the offseason as a 1.10 in Superflex rookie drafts after months of first-round draft buzz. He sits at the 3.04 now after the actual NFL Draft saw him slide all the way to pick 165 in the fifth round. That is four full rounds of movement on a player whose landing spot is one of the cleanest workload paths in the entire class.
The player
Singleton is 5-foot-11, 219 pounds, and ran a 4.43 at the combine. The speed score combined with the size is the entire athletic case. He played four years at Penn State, split carries with Kaytron Allen for most of them, and finished his senior year with 1,043 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on 191 carries (5.5 YPC).
The pass-catching is the part the dynasty community sleeps on. He caught 30 balls in 2024 and 36 in 2025, with a 76% catch rate on 81 career targets. He runs routes out of the backfield at a starter-quality level. The third-down profile is real.
The injury history is the slight knock. He missed two games in 2023 with a hamstring and three games in 2024 with a knee. None of these are career-altering, but the durability questions get asked at every level.
The landing spot
Tennessee took him 165th overall, fifth round. The backfield is Tony Pollard and Singleton. Pollard is entering his age-29 season on the final year of his deal. There are no guarantees beyond 2026. Singleton has a real shot at the unquestioned RB1 job by year two, with day-three capital working against him on the path.
The volume math is what makes this an interesting dynasty asset even at the discount. Tennessee ran the ball 467 times in 2025, ninth in the league. Pollard handled 245 of those carries. The available volume for Singleton in 2026 is 60-90 carries plus pass-catching usage if he beats out the depth pieces.
In 2027, the full backfield is open. Tennessee ran 467 times. A bell-cow back getting 70% of that workload posts 325 carries and 1,400 rushing yards. The fifth-round capital makes that a real bet, not a guaranteed one.
The quarterback math
Same as Carnell Tate. Cam Ward is signed through 2029. The offense is built around play action and intermediate passing, which is the exact concept that elevates RB production through receiving volume. Singleton's pass-catching role gets bigger in years two and three because the scheme demands it.
The 2025 Tennessee starting RB caught 64 passes. That is a 80-target floor for Singleton by year two. PPR managers should be paying close attention.
The math
The trade value engine has Singleton at 34 in Superflex, which is RB48 overall. That is the entry price for a fifth-round rookie running back with a one-year wait on the workload. The historical comparable for a fifth-round RB walking into a clearing backfield produces an RB20 finish by year two roughly 18% of the time. The hit rate is lower than the second-round bet would have been, but the price is one full round cheaper than that bet ever could have been.
The trade value of the 3.04 in Superflex is 27. Singleton at 3.04 is a clear win on the math.
The path
Year one: 75 carries, 20 catches, 5 total touchdowns, RB52 finish. Year two: Pollard is gone, Singleton wins the lead role, 230 carries, 55 catches, 11 total touchdowns, RB16 finish. Year three: Full bell-cow workload, 280 carries, 65 catches, 13 total touchdowns, RB10 finish.
That two-year window to a top-16 outcome is exactly what a 3.04 pick is supposed to deliver, and Singleton's path is one of the cleanest available at the day-three price tier.
What can go wrong
The downside is the Pollard extension scenario. If Tennessee re-signs Pollard at a reduced rate for 2027, Singleton becomes the 1B in a committee. The probability is 18%. Pollard's contract demands and age make a reasonable extension unlikely.
The other risk is the injury history. If Singleton misses six games in 2026, the workload path shifts to 2028 and the dynasty value compresses by a full tier.
The pick
Take Singleton at 3.04. If you can get him at 3.05 or later, that is a strong win. If you can package a 3.06 plus a 2027 fourth for Singleton, the trade math works in your favor.
The case for Singleton is the case for paying attention to landing spots that clear up in year two. Most dynasty managers want immediate production. The ones who win championships are the ones who buy the workload path one year before it materializes.
For more on the RB class, see Jeremiyah Love at 1.01, Jonah Coleman in Denver, and the rookie RB vs WR decision tree.