Nick Singleton is the running back the dynasty community keeps moving down. He started the offseason as a 1.10 in Superflex rookie drafts. He sits at 2.04 now after the post-draft adjustment. That is two tiers of movement on a player whose actual situation got better, not worse, between February and May.
The player
Singleton is 5-foot-11, 219 pounds, and ran a 4.43 at the combine. The speed score combined with the size is the entire athletic case. He played four years at Penn State, split carries with Kaytron Allen for most of them, and finished his senior year with 1,043 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on 191 carries (5.5 YPC).
The pass-catching is the part the dynasty community sleeps on. He caught 30 balls in 2024 and 36 in 2025, with a 76% catch rate on 81 career targets. He runs routes out of the backfield at a starter-quality level. The third-down profile is real.
The injury history is the slight knock. He missed two games in 2023 with a hamstring and three games in 2024 with a knee. None of these are career-altering, but the durability questions get asked at every level.
The landing spot
Tennessee took him 49th overall, second round. The backfield is Tony Pollard and Singleton. Pollard is entering his age-29 season on the final year of his deal. There are no guarantees beyond 2026. Singleton is the unquestioned RB1 by year two.
The volume math is the part that makes this a top-30 RB dynasty asset. Tennessee ran the ball 467 times in 2025, ninth in the league. Pollard handled 245 of those carries. The available volume for Singleton in 2026 is 100-130 carries plus pass-catching usage. That is RB35 production by the floor.
In 2027, the full backfield is his. Tennessee ran 467 times. A bell-cow back getting 75% of that workload posts 350 carries and 1,500 rushing yards.
The quarterback math
Same as Carnell Tate. Cam Ward is signed through 2029. The offense is built around play action and intermediate passing, which is the exact concept that elevates RB production through receiving volume. Singleton's pass-catching role gets bigger in years two and three because the scheme demands it.
The 2025 Tennessee starting RB caught 64 passes. That is a 80-target floor for Singleton by year two. PPR managers should be paying close attention.
The math
The trade value engine has Singleton at 56 in Superflex, which is RB28 overall. That is the entry price for a second-round rookie running back with a one-year wait on the workload. The historical comparable for a second-round RB in a clearing backfield produces an RB15 finish by year two roughly 42% of the time.
The trade value of the 2.04 in Superflex is 51. Singleton at 2.04 is a clear win.
The path
Year one: 120 carries, 35 catches, 8 total touchdowns, RB34 finish. Year two: Pollard is gone, Singleton is the lead back, 260 carries, 65 catches, 12 total touchdowns, RB12 finish. Year three: Full bell-cow workload, 290 carries, 70 catches, 14 total touchdowns, RB7 finish.
That two-year window to a top-12 outcome is what a 2.04 pick is supposed to deliver, and Singleton's path is one of the cleanest in the class.
What can go wrong
The downside is the Pollard extension scenario. If Tennessee re-signs Pollard at a reduced rate for 2027, Singleton becomes the 1B in a committee. The probability is 18%. Pollard's contract demands and age make a reasonable extension unlikely.
The other risk is the injury history. If Singleton misses six games in 2026, the workload path shifts to 2028 and the dynasty value compresses by a full tier.
The pick
Take Singleton at 2.04. If you can get him at 2.05 or later, that is a strong win. If you can package a 2.06 plus a 2027 third for Singleton, the trade math works in your favor.
The case for Singleton is the case for paying attention to landing spots that clear up in year two. Most dynasty managers want immediate production. The ones who win championships are the ones who buy the workload path one year before it materializes.
For more on the RB class, see Jeremiyah Love at 1.01, Jonah Coleman in Denver, and the rookie RB vs WR decision tree.